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CMU-ISRI-07-102
Institute for Software Research
School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University
CMU-ISRI-07-102
The Role of Dynamic-Network
Multi-Agent Models of Socio-Polical Systems in Policy
Marcus A. Louie, Kathleen M. Carley
January 2007
CASOS Technical Report
CMU-ISRI-07-102.pdf
Keywords: Multi-agent modeling, validation, social network
modeling, simulation, social systems
Researchers and policy makers are increasingly turning to
multi-agent and dynamic-network multi-agent
models to study real-world systems. The models hold particular
appeal because of their intuitive representation of
complex real-world systems that can be thought of as "complex systems."
Both policy makers and those affected by
the policies influenced by these models often question whether a
model is valid. We explore the intended use of
these models, the extent to which they can be validated, and the
consequent implications for their use in setting
policy. We ground the analysis using a dynamic-network
multi-agent model we are helping to develop called the
Regional Threat Evaluator (RTE), applied to data from Indonesia
and Thailand. We find that there are three core
difficulties in validating these models: defining the appropriate
operating domain, data availability, and validating a
model that integrates multiple theories.
41 pages
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